FXAK02 KWNH 232154

PMDAK



Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service College Park MD

554 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026



Valid 12Z Tue 27 Oct 2026 - 12Z Sat 31 Oct 2026





...Powerful storms to impact the Aleutians/Mainland with heavy 

rain/snow, high winds & coastal flooding threats next week...





...Overview...



An active wet and windy pattern looks to remain in place next week

across much of western to north-central mainland Alaska as mean 

downstream upper-ridging and upstream troughing keeps the storm 

track anchored over the region. Lower elevation heavy rain, higher

elevation snow and gusty winds are likely through early next week

with lingering precipitation chances through next mid-week. 

Yet another significant storm with connection to the deeply moist

extratropical remnants of current West Pacific Typhoon Champi 

looks to reach a turbulent Bering Sea mid-later next week to 

bring high winds to the Aleutians and heavy rains/high winds into

southwest Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula then SouthCentral Alaska.





...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...



Guidance forecast spread and predictability seem better than

average with depiction of multiple main weather systems and

associated threat messaging basis for quite a protracted upcoming

stormy period for Alaska and vicinity, but remains cycle to cycle

sensitive for local focus and details over time. Favor a composite

of best clustered guidance of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and

GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means over medium-range time scales.





...Weather/Hazards Highlights...



A highly active pattern will remain slated across much of the 

northwestern to north-central mainland bringing periods of lower 

elevation heavy rain, higher elevation heavy snow, and gusty winds

(especially over elevated terrain) late this weekend and through 

at least early next week. The next in a series of dynamic systems 

will bring an additional influx of moisture towards the 

northwestern coast and arcing eastward within amplifying flow 

across the central Interior and along the Brooks Range. This will 

lead to renewed lower elevation rain and heavy high elevation snow

chances for the Kuskokwim/Yukon Deltas and Seward Peninsula into 

the western/central Interior and along the Brooks Range. Some 

precipitation will likely spread eastward along the North Slope 

and into the eastern Interior, though with less moisture to work 

with amounts should be more limited. Heavy precipitation chances 

look to linger through Tuesday with prolonged moderate to heavy 

rainfall for lower elevations and heavy snow in the Brooks Range.

Strong, gusty winds are also expected throughout the region and 

will likely extend a bit further east as well with strong 

gap/downsloping winds along the northern side the regional 

mountain ranges including the Alaska and Brooks Range. Coastal 

flooding along the western/Southwest coast will be a concern 

given periods of stronger onshore flow, with the greatest impacts

to be dictated by the more uncertain orientation of this flow. 



Thereafter, precipitation chances will likely linger as a frontal

wave or two ripple through the region. Then, a stronger low 

pressure system is expected to approach the Aleutians and move 

into the Bering Sea mid-late next week. This system looks to be 

even stronger and bring a possibly deeper, more tropically- 

sourced long fetch plume of moisture northward. While some 

uncertainty on the timing and extent of impacts remains, 

confidence has increased in very gusty winds for the Aleutians 

given the deep low pressure and tightening gradient expected, 

first for the western Aleutians Wednesday and then spreading 

eastward towards the western end of the Alaska Peninsula 

Thursday/Friday. Moderate rain is likely for the Aleutians, with 

higher amounts downstream for the Alaska Peninsula into Southwest

Alaska as higher terrain enhances upslope flow. Coastal flooding 

remains a significant concern. Heavy rains should work downstream

to Kodiak Island and SouthCentral Alaska next Friday/weekend as 

also enhanced by northern Gulf of Alaska triple-point low genesis.



Elsewhere, Southeast Alaska in stark contrast looks to remain dry

with the storm track well to the northwest. Temperatures will 

generally be above to well above average for the mainland given 

the combination of a leading upper-ridge in place to the east and

warmer southerly flow to the west, with the greatest anomalies 

for the North Slope. 



Schichtel





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 

medium range hazards outlook chart at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface

fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be

found at:



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html