AXPZ20 KNHC 021559

TWDEP



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat May 2 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late-season, short-lived gap

wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec region by early Sun 

morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra

Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the

Gulf of America. Wind are expected to increase to minimal gale 

force on Sun, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft. Then, winds are 

forecast to diminish below gale force by Mon morning with seas of

8 to 10 ft. Afterwards, marine conditions will quickly improve. 



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs

in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in 

late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may 

occur as early as September, and as late as May. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends westward from near the coastal border of

Panama and Colombia to 07N80W to 09N95W to 07N105W. The ITCZ 

continues from 07N105W to 06N120W to 08N140W. Clusters of moderate

to strong convection are noted from 04N to 10N E of 87W to the

coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama. Scattered moderate

convection is occurring from 07N to 11N between 120W and 134W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 

read the Special Features section above for details. 



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate

seas. In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds 

and slight seas are noted. Elsewhere along the Mexican forecast

waters, gentle with locally moderate SW to W winds and seas of 

3 to 5 ft in mixed swells prevail. 



For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions in the Tehunatepec

region, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are expected in

the northern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night. Elsewhere, 

mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will 

prevail. 



....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 

WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Gentle to moderate NW to SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted 

across all the offshore waters, except winds are from the S 

between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Clusters of moderate

to strong convection are affecting the offshore forecast waters

from Colombia to Costa Rica, including the Gulf of Panama



For the forecast, convergent winds near a surface trough will 

maintain scattered strong thunderstorms and locally gusty winds 

in the offshore waters of Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama,

including the Gulf of Panama through at least Sun. Fresh to locally

strong easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region by Mon

night. Moderate seas, in southerly swell, will prevail across the

region.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. It

is sustaining moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas W of 130W.

An area of rough seas in NE swell is noted from 09N to 17N W of 

134W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in mixed swells 

are present elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. South 

of the ITCZ, mainly light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft 

in mixed swells prevail.



A former cold front in the form of a surface trough will sink 

south of 31N tonight through Sun, weakening the pressure gradient

between high pressure to the north and lower pressure of the 

ITCZ. This will allow the trade winds to diminish to gentle to

moderate speeds by Sun night. Rough seas in the trade wind zone W

of 130W will persist through at least Sun. 



$$

GR